Erroneous Terminal Area Forecasts

 

Hale County airport reporting VFR

Our flight from Aero Country (T31), our home airport near Dallas, to the Hale County airport (KPVW) in Plainview, TX hasn't been very pleasant. There have been low clouds, forcing us into 1,000 ft AGL flight. 

Not to worry. There are no nasty obstacles or troubling magenta areas on our route. All airports along the route are reporting at least marginal VFR, with ceilings predicted to rise, so ceilings cannot come suddenly down and trap us.

The news ahead is even better. Hale County has been reporting VFR for the past hour, with ceilings rapidly rising.

But Hale County is just the first stop of the day. Following the excellent advice of C. Sullenberger, the famous pilot of the miracle landing on the Hudson, we look ahead every 30 minutes and examine the weather-reporting airports right up to the final destination of the day, in this case the Grants-Milan airport (KGNT).

We have been particularly concerned about the Clovis AFB since it was IFR and supplied the following Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) when we departed the Dallas area.

Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) issued 10:00 Zulu

The consistent IFR prediction is worrisome. On other hand, the airport is just 80 nm west of Hale County, and it seems unusual that Hale County has a 6,500 ft ceiling and Clovis is still predicted to be IFR for much of the day. 

Fortunately, as we approach Hale County, the weather at Clovis looks up.

Actual weather at Clovis: Marginal VFR

So here is a weird situation. Actual weather at Clovis has become marginal VFR and no longer is IFR. Indeed, 10 minutes later, Clovis reports VFR with unlimited ceiling. At the same time, the Garmin Pilot still supplies a TAF that predicts IFR for most of the day.

What is Wrong Here?

The situation is just another symptom of the following situation. Technology has moved forward in great strides, but some systems cling to outdated concepts. This includes the supply of weather forecasts for airports by TAFs. 

The forecast should be recomputed hourly and distributed via ADS-B just as happens with the current weather information and radar images.

More Suggestions

When one looks at the current aviation system, one sees a gulf between outdated processes and modern technology. This ranges from the single channel, voice communication only, interaction with ATC and FSS, and the distribution of weather forecasts, to the old-fashioned handling of pilot reports.

For example, there likely would be lots of useful pilot reports if the Garmin Pilot could create a pop-up window where the pilot inserts the relevant information. Upon completion, the information would be broadcast to the FSS, which collates the results and distributes them via ADS-B.

Dreaming?

Sounds like dreaming about a wonderland, doesn't it? But if you had predicted in 1980, when even the FSS didn't have radar images about the current weather, that 40 years later every pilot could have weather radar images on board, you would have been called a hopeless dreamer or worse. 

What is needed isn't criticism of such dreams, but a revolutionary look at how aviation processes should be structured to exploit the advances in technology. The elimination of erroneous TAFs would be one of the many goals. 

Have any questions or feedback about Terminal Area Forecasts? Please share your thoughts in the comments.

 

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